Opener Lab
ARISE vs TRACE
See which word leaves you with the easier game.
Both words are in the current screen of 182 openers, tested against 2,358 answers. Exact misses rank first; average guesses among wins break ties.
The same solver played from both openers. TRACE has the lower average in games solved within six: 3.46 guesses to 3.51 for ARISE.
Against 1,858 past Wordle answers, ARISE left the smaller first-guess group on 53% of dates; TRACE did so on 47%, with the rest tied.
One thing ARISE does better is damage control. Its worst feedback pattern leaves 173 possible answers, while TRACE can be left staring at 253.
| Metric | ARISE | TRACE |
|---|---|---|
| Elimination | 97.2% | 96.8% |
| Information | 5.82 bits | 5.82 bits |
| Avg remaining | 65 words | 76 words |
| Avg turns | 3.51 | 3.46 |
| Missed in six | 0 | 0 |
| Win rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Tier | S | S |
Head to head on past answers
We tried both openers against 1,858 past Wordle answers and counted which one left fewer possibilities after the first guess.
Across those answers, ARISE left an average of 65 candidates and TRACE an average of 72.
The most recent test was Wordle #1857 on July 20, 2026, when the answer was DIVER. ARISE came back ⬛🟨🟨⬛🟨 and kept 35 words in play. TRACE came back ⬛🟨⬛⬛🟨 and kept 117 words.
What to expect from the first guess
| Outcome | ARISE | TRACE |
|---|---|---|
| First-turn solve* | 0.04% | 0.04% |
| At least one green | 40.2% | 42.1% |
| Any green or yellow | 92.7% | 89.3% |
| Whole row gray | 7.3% | 10.7% |
| Worst case answers left | 173 | 253 |
*Treating every word in the possible-answer list as equally likely.
A fully gray row is rarer with ARISE: it happens 7.3% of the time, against 10.7% for TRACE.
Planning the second guess
After ARISE
All five letters miss 7.3% of the time, leaving 173 words in play. Of the 673 follow-ups checked here, COULD leaves the fewest possible answers on average (6.8).
After TRACE
All five letters miss 10.7% of the time, leaving 253 words in play. Of the 753 follow-ups checked here, SOILY leaves the fewest possible answers on average (7.1).
How these two openers fit together
ARISE and TRACE share 3 letters (A, E, R). Played as a pair they cover 7 distinct letters, which still gives the second word room to do useful work.
Played back to back, ARISE then TRACE earns 7.76 bits of information in total, 1.93 bits more than the better word manages alone.
Past Wordle answers
- ARISE: Answer to Wordle #1603 on November 8, 2025. TRACE would have come back ⬛🟩🟨⬛🟩 that day, leaving 3 possible answers.
- TRACE: Answer to Wordle #179 on December 15, 2021. ARISE would have come back 🟨🟩⬛⬛🟩 that day, leaving 18 possible answers.
Common questions
- Which is a better starting word: ARISE or TRACE?
- In the current bounded policy screen, TRACE has the lower average in games the solver finished within six: 3.46 guesses versus 3.51 for ARISE. The same solver played from both words.
- What does entropy mean for ARISE vs TRACE?
- Entropy measures the information in the distribution of feedback outcomes. ARISE records 5.82 bits and TRACE records 5.82 bits. Their entropy scores are effectively equal. Entropy describes the opening row; it does not by itself predict how many guesses a game will take.
- How do ARISE and TRACE score against past Wordle answers?
- Across 1,858 past Wordle answers, ARISE left fewer possible answers than TRACE on 53% of days, TRACE did better on 47%, and the rest were ties. On average, ARISE left 65 candidates after the first guess and TRACE left 72.