Wordle Openers: Win Rate, Average and Volatility
Win rate alone does not tell you which strong Wordle opener will feel more reliable. In this test, the leading words have nearly identical rounded win rates: the top 100 range from 99.8% to 100.0%. Average guesses and the spread of game lengths reveal more.
Win rate is the percentage of games solved within six turns. Average game length is the mean number of guesses in successful games. Volatility describes how widely those game lengths vary.
The mathematical name for that spread is standard deviation. A lower value means most results sit close to the average. A higher value means the opener produces a wider mix of short and long games.
How we tested this
The complete v5 benchmark tested 14,855 captured Wordle-valid opening guesses against its 2,354-answer snapshot. It used the same automated strategy after every opener. Average and volatility include games solved within six turns, while failed games appear in win rate. This historical snapshot is separate from today's bounded ranking and live solver policy.
Two different kinds of leader
Among the 300 openers with the lowest average game length, DARTS has the narrowest spread. Its volatility is 0.644 and its average is 3.559 guesses. The other low-spread choices appear in the table.
SLANT has the lowest average in this six-turn test at 3.507 guesses. Its volatility is 0.674, compared with 0.644 for DARTS. The average leader can therefore produce a wider mix of game lengths.
CRANE and other familiar choices are included for context. A larger volatility value means their successful games are spread across a wider range of lengths.
This is a selected comparison, not a complete volatility ranking of all 14,855 words.
| Word | Volatility | Avg guesses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DARTS | 0.644 | 3.559 | 99.9 |
| TARDS | 0.645 | 3.557 | 99.9 |
| DROPT | 0.650 | 3.562 | 100.0 |
| TALCS | 0.654 | 3.556 | 100.0 |
| DRATS | 0.656 | 3.560 | 99.9 |
| SLANT | 0.674 | 3.507 | 99.9 |
| CRANE | 0.716 | 3.550 | 99.9 |
| TRUCE | 0.716 | 3.571 | 99.9 |
| LEARN | 0.714 | 3.570 | 99.8 |
Choose the measure that matches your goal
- Start with solve rate. Make sure you are not trading many six-turn failures for a prettier average.
- Check average guesses. SLANT leads this test on that measure.
- Check the spread. DARTS is the most consistent within this selected strong group.
- Use familiarity as a tie-breaker. A word you understand well can be easier to follow up than an unfamiliar word with a tiny numerical lead.
The lowest average and the narrowest spread are not necessarily the same result. Neither number needs to make the decision alone.
The Opener Lab lets you compare two distributions directly, and the solver ranks the next move after your actual opener.
See what spread means
This small example is for learning, not benchmark data. Four game lengths stay fixed. Move the fifth result and watch the average and standard deviation change.
Game lengths: 3, 3, 4, 4, 5. Average: 3.80. Standard deviation: 0.75. Moving one result farther from the others increases the spread.
Compare 3, 3, 4, 4, 5 with 3, 3, 4, 4, 6. The second set has a longer outlying game, so both its average and its spread are higher.
Compare any two openers head to head.
Open the Opener Lab