Wordle Openers: Win Rate, Average and Volatility
Rounded win rate is almost useless for separating strong Wordle openers: the top 100 sit between 99.8% and 100.0% in this test. Average game length and the spread of those game lengths tell you more.
Game-length spread adds another view. This page calls it volatility; mathematically, it is the standard deviation of the number of guesses used in successful games. A lower value means results cluster more tightly around the average. A higher value means a wider mix of short and long games, not necessarily a worse opener.
SLANT has the lowest average, while DARTS has the narrowest spread among the 300 strongest openers. The two measures reward different qualities.
How we tested this
The complete v5 benchmark tested 14,855 captured Wordle-valid opening guesses against its 2,354-answer snapshot, using the same automated strategy after every opener. Average and volatility cover games solved within six turns; failed games are reflected in win rate. This historical snapshot is separate from today's bounded ranking and live solver policy.
Consistency, not win rate
Among the 300 openers with the lowest average game length, DARTS has the smallest spread: volatility 0.644 with an average of 3.559 guesses. The rest of the lowest-spread group appears in the table.
SLANT has the lowest average in this six-turn test at 3.507 guesses. Its volatility is 0.674, compared with 0.644 for DARTS, so the average leader can still produce a wider mix of game lengths.
CRANE and other familiar choices are included for context. A higher volatility number does not make an opener unreliable; it simply means its successful games are spread across a wider range of lengths.
The table puts volatility beside average guesses and win rate. The rows are a selected comparison, not a complete volatility ranking of all 14,855 words.
| Word | Volatility | Avg guesses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DARTS | 0.644 | 3.559 | 99.9 |
| TARDS | 0.645 | 3.557 | 99.9 |
| DROPT | 0.650 | 3.562 | 100.0 |
| TALCS | 0.654 | 3.556 | 100.0 |
| DRATS | 0.656 | 3.560 | 99.9 |
| SLANT | 0.674 | 3.507 | 99.9 |
| CRANE | 0.716 | 3.550 | 99.9 |
| TRUCE | 0.716 | 3.571 | 99.9 |
| LEARN | 0.714 | 3.570 | 99.8 |
Which opener should you play?
If you value a narrow spread, DARTS leads this comparison. If average game length is the priority, SLANT leads. Compare both columns before choosing: the lowest average and the tightest spread are not the same thing.
A familiar opener can still be a strong choice even when another word narrowly leads one measure. Volatility adds context; it does not replace average game length or the practical value of knowing your opener well.
The Opener Lab lets you compare two distributions directly, and the solver ranks the next move after your actual opener.
Compare any two openers head to head.
Open the Opener Lab